Counting Contesters and Ranking Loggers
Tim Shoppa N3QE
A Ham Radio Journey from the 70s CB Craze
Tim's enthusiasm for ham radio was infectious, and his analytical mind was a perfect match for the complexities of our hobby. His story began in 1978 when he was just 11 years old. The CB radio craze of the 1970s had piqued his interest in radio, but the content on CB radios didn't hold his attention for long. Instead, Tim was drawn to tinkering with electronics, a passion that is still evident in his basement workshop today.
Tim was fortunate to be mentored by his father's friend, Vern Lang (AB0M), a jeweler with a passion for CW (Morse code). Vern's influence and the supportive environment of the local ham radio club in Muscatine, Iowa, helped Tim earn his novice license. He upgraded to general and advanced licenses while still in middle school and dabbled in digital modes, building his own decoder encoder connected to an Apple II computer. Although he participated in some contests like the novice roundup, it wasn't until later in life that he became heavily involved in contesting.
The Slippery Slope into Contesting
Tim's re-engagement with ham radio in his 40s was driven by the advent of Logbook of the World and other electronic logging programs. These tools allowed him to track progress towards awards like Worked All States (WAS) and DX Century Club (DXCC) more efficiently. By participating in contests, he realized he could achieve these awards in a single weekend. This analytical approach to ham radio appealed to Tim, and he soon joined the Potomac Valley Radio Club (PVRC), a contest-oriented club that further fueled his passion for contesting. The club's supportive environment helped Tim quickly catch up after spending decades away from the hobby.
The Intersection of Ham Radio and Career
I was curious about Tim's analytical skills and writing aptitude, wondering if there was a connection to his career. Tim explained that he attended grad school at Cal Tech, where his writing process began with creating graphs or tables of data. This approach remains his "crutch" for writing. In his day job, Tim works with the central control computer of the Washington DC Metro subway system, an environment rich with tables, charts, and graphs. This natural inclination towards data presentation makes him well-suited for analyzing ham radio contest data.
How Many Contesters Are There?
Tim's interest in the number of contesters was sparked by a presentation from G7VJR, the creator of Club Log. By analyzing logs from major DXpeditions and DXers, G7VJR estimated that there were between 50,000 and 100,000 active DXers worldwide. Tim applied similar methods to determine the number of contesters. Using data from 21 different contests in 2021, he identified over 11,000 participants in the CQ Worldwide Phone contest alone. Tim's analysis considered the accuracy of call signs, recognizing that common call sign busts could inflate the apparent number of participants. By only counting call signs that appeared more than six times, he ensured a more accurate estimate.
Estimating the Number of Active Contesters
To estimate the number of active hams, Tim referenced a QST article by Dave Sumner, K1ZZ, which estimated 4 million licensed hams worldwide. Tim broke this down further, considering factors like the fraction of hams with contesting privileges, those with access to a contest-capable station, and those who participate in at least one contest annually. He used a version of the Drake equation for contesting to arrive at an estimate of 29,000 hams who participated in contests in 2021. This estimate aligns with the growth trends observed in contest participation, despite challenges like HOA limitations that restrict station setups.
Analyzing Contest Participation by Mode and Geography
Tim's data analysis revealed interesting patterns in contest participation. He found that phone contests attract the most participants, followed by CW and digital modes. VHF contesters are a distinct group but often overlap with HF contesters. Tim's Venn diagrams illustrated the breakdown of contesters by mode and the overlap between different contesting activities. For instance, in 2021, 2,748 hams participated in contests across all three modes, while the largest group consisted of those who only participated in phone contests.
The Growth of Contesting
Despite challenges, contesting is a growing segment of ham radio. Tim highlighted factors contributing to this growth, such as the increasing number of licensed hams, the popularity of portable operations like Parks on the Air (POTA), and the support from contesting clubs and organizations like CWops. These factors help mitigate limitations like HOA restrictions and promote the adoption of new modes and contesting activities.
Examining Logging Software Trends
Tim's investigation into logging software usage involved analyzing over a million logs from various contests. He focused on the CQ Worldwide contest dataset, which has been publicly available since 2005. His analysis showed the evolution of logging software popularity over time. In 2005, programs like CT and WriteLog were popular, but their usage has since declined. N1MM Logger has grown to become the most popular logging software worldwide, particularly in North America. Other loggers, such as CTestWin in Asia and QARtest in Italy, have regional popularity. Tim's data also revealed that top contesters, such as those participating in the World Radiosport Team Championship (WRTC), increasingly use N1MM and DXLog.
Concluding Thoughts
Reflecting on my conversation with Tim, I was struck by his analytical approach to ham radio. His work provides valuable insights into the hobby, inspiring both new and experienced operators. Tim encourages detail-oriented individuals to explore the vast amount of data available in ham radio, emphasizing that the hobby offers rich opportunities for data analysis and personal growth. I recommend that you visit Tim's QRZ page and look for him in upcoming contests.
